Around the world, 2024 was a pivotal election year (2025)

The whirlwind of the 2024 super election year has drawn to a close. National or – as in the case of the European Parliament elections – supranational elections were held in over 70 countries. Among them were four of the world’s five most populous countries: India, the United States, Indonesia and Pakistan. In total, elections were held in countries representing 4 billion people – half the global population – marking a record.

But not all elections are created equal. The quality and fairness of the democratic process varied significantly. In roughly a third of the nations that voted in 2024, elections were deemed neither free nor fair. These states are categorized as autocracies. (For more on how forms of government are defined, see here.)

In these autocratic regimes, elections followed a familiar pattern:

In Russia, Vladimir Putin secured another term as president in a process devoid of genuine opposition. Similarly, Syria’s former leader, Bashar Assad, held a so-called parliamentary election in areas under his control mere months before being ousted. In both cases, there was no opposition.

Meanwhile, in El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele defied constitutional limits on direct reelection by temporarily stepping down and delegating his duties to his secretary. The Supreme Court and the electoral authority rubber-stamped this maneuver. Opposition figures and NGOs warn that such tactics erode the separation of powers.

Three key trends in the 2024 election year:

A bad year for incumbents

Around the world, voters turned against ruling parties and leaders. According to an analysis by The Financial Times, incumbents were ousted in all 10 major countries that held national elections in 2024 – a first in nearly 120 years. While the trend was especially evident in parliamentary contests, it also played out in presidential elections, such as in the United States.

The example of Botswana underscores just how exceptional 2024 was. The Botswana Democratic Party, in power since independence in 1966, suffered a stunning defeat in October’s parliamentary elections. High unemployment and turmoil in the diamond industry, a cornerstone of the economy, were key factors behind its loss.

While global explanations for this wave of anti-incumbency are elusive, dissatisfaction with economic conditions appears to be a common denominator. A Pew Research Center survey conducted across 30 countries revealed widespread frustration not just with economic performance but also with the functioning of democracy itself.

This discontent was reflected in outcomes across nations, including the U.K., France and South Africa, where incumbents faced voter backlash. In South Africa, the African National Congress failed to secure an outright majority in the National Assembly for the first time since the end of apartheid.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP lost their absolute majority in parliament, forcing them to rely on coalition partners. A majority of Indians remain content with both the state of the economy and the functioning of democracy.

Right-wing forces gain ground in Europe

Conservative and far-right parties are steadily improving their electoral standing across Europe. The trend was on full display during the European elections in June: Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, RN, secured more than double the votes of French President Emmanuel Macron's party. In Austria, the Freedom Party, FPÖ, emerged as the leading political force for the first time. Meanwhile, in Germany, the Alternative for Germany, AfD, saw significant gains, climbing to second place behind the CDU/CSU.

Three blocs to the right of the center-right European People’s Party, EPP, now control a quarter of the assembly’s seats. Only Ireland, Slovenia and Malta remain without representation in these right-wing groups.

The rise of right-wing populist and radical-right forces has extended into countries that had previously resisted such movements. In Portugal, the right-wing populist Chega party more than doubled its vote share in parliamentary elections, jumping from 7% to 18% to become the third-largest party. Founded only in 2019, Chega’s rapid ascent comes at the expense of the Socialist Party, which lost 13 percentage points and its absolute majority.

Elections in Putin’s shadow

He appeared on the ballot in only one country, but Vladimir Putin loomed large over several elections in 2024. Particularly in Eastern Europe, voters were often confronted with a geopolitical choice: lean toward Moscow or Brussels, and in some cases, questions arose about whether Russia had meddled in the electoral process.

Nowhere was this more apparent than in Georgia, where a pro-Russian government squared off against a pro-European opposition in a battle for the country’s geopolitical future. October’s parliamentary elections delivered a victory for the pro-Russian camp, but allegations of electoral manipulation soon surfaced, raising doubts about the legitimacy of the result.

In neighboring Moldova, pro-European President Maia Sandu won reelection, and voters narrowly approved a referendum to enshrine EU accession in the constitution. However, the outcomes were less decisive than they appeared. Sandu’s victory depended heavily on votes from Moldovans living abroad, as her opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, actually outperformed her domestically.

Romania’s presidential election delivered a surprise as ultranationalist candidate Calin Georgescu defied expectations to win the first round. Preelection polls had placed him at only a few percentage points, but he secured 22.9% of the nationwide vote.

According to the Romanian secret service, Georgescu benefited from an illegal campaign on the video platform TikTok. Russia is said to have been behind this. Putin had every reason to favor Georgescu, whose pro-Russian positions include refusing to condemn the invasion of Ukraine and opposing military aid to Kyiv. These stances resonated with voters in Ukraine’s border regions and in southeastern Romania, where Georgescu secured over 25% of the vote.

Just two days before the scheduled presidential runoff, Romania’s Constitutional Court invalidated the first round of voting – even as ballots were already being cast abroad for the second round. The election will need to be repeated. As 2024’s super election year draws to a close, one conclusion emerges: Even within the European Union, the integrity of free and fair elections cannot be taken for granted.

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